How Russia–Ukraine War Affects Cooking Oil Prices
🫒 Cooking Oil prices could rise up to +52.1% in 🇪🇬 Egypt under a full pass-through scenario driven by Russia–Ukraine War (Feb 2022 – Present (ongoing)).
Scenario ceiling only. All figures show an upper-bound assuming 100% pass-through. Actual retail prices depend on competition, subsidies, logistics, and market structure.
Commodity shocks driving this scenario
Top 5 most affected countries
High wheat import dependence (~62% imported), severe EGP devaluation (–49%), limited domestic grain production
Net food importer, parallel FX market premium widened, high fuel import dependence
Relies on imported wheat and cooking oil, PKR fell 22% vs USD, energy subsidy fiscal pressure
Major grain importer from Black Sea region, TRY lost 28% vs USD, high energy import dependence
Direct conflict zone, agricultural export disruption, UAH devalued 25% officially
Bottom 5 least affected countries
Major commodity exporter (grains, oil), BRL stable, benefits from higher export prices
Subsidized fuel and food programs, IDR declined only 5%, palm oil export restrictions helped
Partially insulated by domestic production and export bans, modest INR depreciation (–10%)
Diversified grain imports, MAD relatively stable (–9%), government subsidy programs active
Imports ~60% of wheat, PHP depreciated 10%, exposure to global grain and energy benchmarks
Important caveats
- All figures assume 100% pass-through of upstream cost changes. In practice, realized impacts are typically 55-75% of the ceiling.
- Government subsidies, price controls, and strategic reserves can significantly reduce actual consumer impacts.
- Rankings reflect structural vulnerability (import dependence, FX exposure) rather than real-time prices.
- Within-country variation (urban vs rural, coastal vs inland) is not captured at this resolution.