How Gaza War / Red Sea Crisis Affects Cooking Oil Prices
🫒 Cooking Oil prices could rise up to +22.3% in 🇪🇬 Egypt under a full pass-through scenario driven by Gaza War / Red Sea Crisis (Oct 2023 – Present).
Scenario ceiling only. All figures show an upper-bound assuming 100% pass-through. Actual retail prices depend on competition, subsidies, logistics, and market structure.
Commodity shocks driving this scenario
Top 5 most affected countries
Direct neighbor, Suez Canal traffic disruption, EGP floated in Mar 2024 (–38%)
Naira collapsed after June 2023 peg removal (–49%), amplified all import costs
Shipping cost increases on food imports, PKR stabilized post-IMF deal
Regional trade disruption, TRY continued decline (–28%), energy transit concerns
Shipping route cost increases via Red Sea, moderate food import exposure
Bottom 5 least affected countries
Geographically distant, commodity exporter, BRL weakened but on domestic factors
Minimal direct exposure, subsidized domestic market, IDR stable
Limited direct exposure, diversified import sources, INR stable
Moderate shipping cost pass-through, MAD stable, government subsidies active
Already in wartime economy, limited additional impact from Gaza conflict
Important caveats
- All figures assume 100% pass-through of upstream cost changes. In practice, realized impacts are typically 55-75% of the ceiling.
- Government subsidies, price controls, and strategic reserves can significantly reduce actual consumer impacts.
- Rankings reflect structural vulnerability (import dependence, FX exposure) rather than real-time prices.
- Within-country variation (urban vs rural, coastal vs inland) is not captured at this resolution.