A visual guide to rising costs

A war happens far away. Why does your bread cost more?

Follow the journey from oil and ships to shops and homes. Choose your country. See a range, not a prediction.

6 scenarios explained62 countries modeled in this crisis10 everyday categories
Scenario estimator only:This tool estimates a scenario ceiling under 100% pass-through. Actual impacts depend on subsidies, supply substitution, and government intervention.

Follow the chain

One shock. Four moves.

The path is not magic. Each step can weaken or strengthen the final effect.

  1. 01◉

    A route is blocked

    Ships wait, take a longer route, or carry less. Energy and transport become harder to buy.

  2. 02↗

    World prices react

    Oil, fuel, fertilizer, and shipping prices may rise. Currency changes can add more pressure.

  3. 03⇢

    Businesses carry the cost

    Farms, factories, trucks, and shops pay more. Some absorb the cost; some pass it on.

  4. 04⌂

    Your bill may change

    Bread, transport, soap, and other basics may cost more. Subsidies and local supply can soften the effect.

How to read the model

Read the range before the big number.

The large figure is a stress-test ceiling. The smaller range is a more useful guide to what may reach a household after buffers and delays.

Open this example
🇵🇭 Philippines
Bread
Stress test
+15.1%
model ceiling
8.3–11.3%
typical modeled range

This is a scenario, not a forecast or a shop price. Local policy, supply, and business decisions can change the result.

Current scenario

Who may feel the strongest pressure?

Read the scenario →
01🇪🇬 Egypt+32.4%02🇱🇧 Lebanon+28.8%03🇵🇰 Pakistan+27.1%04🇾🇪 Yemen+26.4%05🇳🇬 Nigeria+23.6%06🇯🇴 Jordan+22.1%07🇹🇷 Türkiye+19.4%08🇧🇩 Bangladesh+18.6%09🇮🇶 Iraq+18.4%10🇱🇰 Sri Lanka+17.4%

Make it local

Start with the place and item you know.

Choose a country and a household need. We will show the assumptions, the range, and where every number came from.

Explore your country