Transparency
Every assumption is documented. The model formula, exposure coefficients, lag profiles, and FX adjustments are all published on the methodology page. If we change an assumption, it appears in the changelog.
About howwarimpactsyou.com
A free, transparent tool that connects macro-level commodity and currency shocks to consumer-level price impacts.
Mission
Connecting macro shocks to consumer reality
When oil prices spike, currencies crash, or wars disrupt supply chains, the headlines focus on commodities markets and geopolitics. But for billions of people, the real question is simpler: will my groceries cost more next month?
This tool bridges that gap. It takes upstream macro shocks — commodity price changes, currency depreciation, trade disruptions — and estimates how they could flow through to consumer categories like bread, cooking oil, fuel, and dairy in specific countries.
The goal is not to predict shelf prices with precision. It is to make the transmission mechanism visible, so that journalists, researchers, policymakers, and curious citizens can understand their exposure to global economic shocks.
Editorial standards
Methodology first
We publish the methodology and validation data alongside the tool itself. The model is validated against realized CPI data from national statistics agencies. Known failure modes are documented on the validation page.
Data sourcing
All macro data comes from authoritative public sources: the World Bank, IMF, FAO, and EIA. Validation data comes from national CPI offices and UN Comtrade. No proprietary or paywalled data is used. Full details on the data sources page.
Built by
This project started with a simple question: “If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, what happens to my electricity bill in India?”
The hard part was not the site. It was building a model that could connect the chain: oil shock → shipping → currency pressure → import exposure → consumer impact — without pretending to know more than it does. That’s where the real work went.
The distance from idea to product just got a lot shorter. A few years ago this becomes a doc, multiple planning discussions, and a long build cycle. Now you can turn a live question into a live product while the idea still has energy. That changes the job.
All of this is intended from a learning standpoint with full credits and shout-outs to the data providers — EIA, IEA, World Bank, IMF, FAO, GDELT, JOGMEC, IATA, and every national statistics agency whose data powers this tool. Not for any commercial use.
The code is open source on GitHub.
Project timeline
Apr 2026
v3.0 — Flight Fuel Alert
New Flight Fuel Alert tool at /flight-alerts. Route risk checker with origin, destination, layover, time horizon (0-6 months), ceasefire scenario with normalcy slider. 26 country fuel profiles, 20 airlines, 10 verified routes, 128 unit tests. Powered by EIA, IEA, JOGMEC, and GDELT data.
Mar–Apr 2026
v2.0–v2.7 — Major expansion
Expanded from 10 to 68 countries. Added Strait of Hormuz 2026 scenario (Brent +54%). Belligerent country rankings for 8 nations. EIA data integration for 164 countries. UI restructure, mobile nav, accessibility audit, feedback page, SerpAPI caching.
Mar 2026
v1.0 Launch
Initial release with 5 war/shock scenarios, 10 consumer categories, 10 core countries, and validation against realized CPI data.
Ongoing
Data updates
Commodity prices and exchange rates are refreshed regularly from World Bank, IMF, EIA, and GDELT feeds. Fuel vulnerability profiles updated as IEA and national agencies publish new data.