How Iran–Israel–US Conflict Affects Bread & Cereals Prices
🍞 Bread & Cereals prices could rise up to +22.8% in 🇪🇬 Egypt under a full pass-through scenario driven by Iran–Israel–US Conflict (Apr 2024 – Present (ongoing)).
Scenario ceiling only. All figures show an upper-bound assuming 100% pass-through. Actual retail prices depend on competition, subsidies, logistics, and market structure.
Commodity shocks driving this scenario
Top 5 most affected countries
Suez Canal revenue disruption from Red Sea tensions, energy import costs rose, EGP fell 38%
Heavy dependence on imported energy (oil, LNG), PKR under fiscal pressure
Oil producer but imports refined fuel, naira under pressure from capital flight
Strategic location near conflict zone, energy import dependence, TRY weakened 15%
Net energy importer, shipping cost pass-through on food and fuel imports
Bottom 5 least affected countries
Energy self-sufficient (pre-salt oil), minimal direct trade exposure to conflict zone
Subsidized energy market, diversified trade routes, IDR relatively stable
Moderate energy import dependence, trade routes less affected, MAD stable
Third-largest oil importer globally, shipping cost increase via Suez/Red Sea route
Ongoing war economy, limited additional exposure from Iran-Israel tensions
Important caveats
- All figures assume 100% pass-through of upstream cost changes. In practice, realized impacts are typically 55-75% of the ceiling.
- Government subsidies, price controls, and strategic reserves can significantly reduce actual consumer impacts.
- Rankings reflect structural vulnerability (import dependence, FX exposure) rather than real-time prices.
- Within-country variation (urban vs rural, coastal vs inland) is not captured at this resolution.