How Iran–Israel–US Conflict Affects Rice Prices
🍚 Rice prices could rise up to +12.1% in 🇳🇬 Nigeria under a full pass-through scenario driven by Iran–Israel–US Conflict (Apr 2024 – Present (ongoing)).
Scenario ceiling only. All figures show an upper-bound assuming 100% pass-through. Actual retail prices depend on competition, subsidies, logistics, and market structure.
Commodity shocks driving this scenario
Top 5 most affected countries
Oil producer but imports refined fuel, naira under pressure from capital flight
Suez Canal revenue disruption from Red Sea tensions, energy import costs rose, EGP fell 38%
Heavy dependence on imported energy (oil, LNG), PKR under fiscal pressure
Net energy importer, shipping cost pass-through on food and fuel imports
Strategic location near conflict zone, energy import dependence, TRY weakened 15%
Bottom 5 least affected countries
Third-largest oil importer globally, shipping cost increase via Suez/Red Sea route
Subsidized energy market, diversified trade routes, IDR relatively stable
Energy self-sufficient (pre-salt oil), minimal direct trade exposure to conflict zone
Moderate energy import dependence, trade routes less affected, MAD stable
Ongoing war economy, limited additional exposure from Iran-Israel tensions
Important caveats
- All figures assume 100% pass-through of upstream cost changes. In practice, realized impacts are typically 55-75% of the ceiling.
- Government subsidies, price controls, and strategic reserves can significantly reduce actual consumer impacts.
- Rankings reflect structural vulnerability (import dependence, FX exposure) rather than real-time prices.
- Within-country variation (urban vs rural, coastal vs inland) is not captured at this resolution.