Wars affect food prices through at least four distinct channels, and understanding each channel is crucial for anticipating which countries and products will be hit hardest.
The first channel is direct supply destruction. When conflict damages farms, storage facilities, ports, or processing plants, the physical supply of food decreases. The Russia-Ukraine war is a textbook case: Ukraine produced 10% of global wheat exports and 50% of global sunflower oil before February 2022 (FAO, 2022). The war immediately removed millions of tonnes from global markets. CBOT wheat futures surged 48% in the weeks following the invasion, from $8.14 to $12.09 per bushel.
The second channel is trade route disruption. Even when production continues, war can block the routes that move food from surplus regions to deficit regions. The Black Sea grain corridor was a critical example. The Gaza conflict triggered Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, causing container lines to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days of transit time. In the 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure, container freight rates surged approximately 150%, from $2,000 to $5,000 per TEU on Asia-Europe routes (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, March 2026).
The third channel is energy cost transmission. Modern agriculture is deeply energy-intensive. Fertilizer production requires natural gas. Farm machinery runs on diesel. Refrigerated transport depends on fuel. The Russia-Ukraine war caused European natural gas prices (TTF) to spike from €79.5 to €339.2 per MWh, a 327% increase. This raised fertilizer costs globally — urea prices rose 65% — which in turn increased production costs for grain farmers in countries far from the conflict.
The fourth channel is currency depreciation. Wars create uncertainty, trigger capital flight, and can destabilize government finances. The Egyptian pound lost 71% of its value between February 2022 and March 2026 (EGP 15.7 to 53.5 per USD), meaning that even if global wheat prices returned to pre-war levels, Egyptian importers would still be paying far more in local currency.
These four channels interact and amplify each other. Egypt, Pakistan, and Nigeria consistently rank as the most vulnerable countries in our model because they score high on multiple channels simultaneously. The FAO Food Price Index peaked at 159.7 in March 2022, 34% above January 2022 levels (FAO, 2022), reflecting the compounding effect across all four channels.
Sources: FAO Food Price Index (2022). CBOT wheat futures data. EU TTF natural gas benchmark. Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (March 2026). Central Bank of Egypt exchange rate data.