How Iraq War / Gulf Oil Shock Affects Milk & Dairy Prices
🥛 Milk & Dairy prices could rise up to +14.1% in 🇵🇰 Pakistan under a full pass-through scenario driven by Iraq War / Gulf Oil Shock (Mar 2003 – Dec 2004).
Scenario ceiling only. All figures show an upper-bound assuming 100% pass-through. Actual retail prices depend on competition, subsidies, logistics, and market structure.
Commodity shocks driving this scenario
Top 5 most affected countries
Energy import dependence, PKR slightly weaker, moderate fiscal pressure
EGP fell 12% after 2003 float, oil import costs rose sharply, limited fiscal buffers
Oil producer benefiting from high prices, but refined fuel imports costly, NGN pegged
Post-2001 crisis recovery, TRY actually appreciated 22%, limiting import cost impact
OFW remittance growth offset PHP decline (–5%), energy costs rose for transport
Bottom 5 least affected countries
BRL appreciated 27% during recovery, offsetting commodity price increases
IDR fell 4%, subsidized fuel prices, moderate trade exposure
INR actually appreciated 9% as economy grew, but oil import bill surged
MAD appreciated, diversified energy sources, moderate trade exposure
Pre-Orange Revolution stability, UAH pegged, minimal FX impact
Important caveats
- All figures assume 100% pass-through of upstream cost changes. In practice, realized impacts are typically 55-75% of the ceiling.
- Government subsidies, price controls, and strategic reserves can significantly reduce actual consumer impacts.
- Rankings reflect structural vulnerability (import dependence, FX exposure) rather than real-time prices.
- Within-country variation (urban vs rural, coastal vs inland) is not captured at this resolution.