Every data point has a provenance. Here is where our numbers come from, how often they update, and what they cover.
Coverage status indicates the completeness of macro factor data, exposure coefficients, and validation data for each country.
Global commodity price indices (Pink Sheet), exchange rate data, GDP deflators, and import dependency ratios. Primary source for wheat, rice, maize, soybean, and palm oil price series.
World Economic Outlook data for GDP growth, inflation baselines, and current account balances. Exchange rate data from the International Financial Statistics (IFS) database.
Food balance sheets for country-level production and import dependency. FAOSTAT trade matrices for bilateral commodity flows. Food Price Index for global benchmarking.
Brent crude oil spot prices, natural gas benchmarks, and refined petroleum product prices. Used for fuel, transport, and fertilizer cost estimation.
Consumer price index data from national statistics agencies (PSA Philippines, CAPMAS Egypt, MOSPI India, IBGE Brazil, NBS Nigeria, PBS Pakistan, BPS Indonesia, TURKSTAT, SSSU Ukraine, HCP Morocco). Used exclusively for validation, not as model inputs.
Bilateral trade data at the HS-6 commodity level for cross-checking import dependency ratios and trade flow assumptions. Used to validate that the model correctly identifies which countries are net importers of specific commodities.