Deep Dive

Country Impact Simulator

Explore how conflict shocks affect a single country across all consumer categories. Toggle items, adjust assumptions, and see the full breakdown.

Select a conflict

Select a country

Select a category

Pass-through

Lag period

🍞

Bread & Cereals

CPI weight: 24%

+25.6%

ceiling: 29.1%

🥛

Milk & Dairy

CPI weight: 18%

+23.6%

ceiling: 26.8%

🥚

Eggs

CPI weight: 4%

+14.8%

ceiling: 16.8%

🍚

Rice

CPI weight: 12%

+12.4%

ceiling: 14.1%

🫒

Cooking Oil

CPI weight: 14%

+25.9%

ceiling: 29.4%

🥬

Vegetables

CPI weight: 14%

+12%

ceiling: 13.6%

🍗

Meat & Chicken

CPI weight: 8%

+17.2%

ceiling: 19.6%

🧴

Detergent

CPI weight: 2%

+13%

ceiling: 14.8%

⛽

Household Fuel

CPI weight: 4%

+36.6%

ceiling: 41.6%

Consumer goods referencein Pakistan

Local prices showing how everyday costs shifted during this conflict.

iPhone 16 Pro 256GB

PKR 3.5L → PKR 3.7L

+3.4%

Priceoye.pk market price

Monthly electricity (200 kWh)

PKR 6,400 → PKR 7,450

+16.4%

NEPRA FCA Rs1.63/kWh (Energy Update)

Economy ISB→DXB

PKR 42,000 → PKR 58,000

+38.1%

PIA fuel surcharge + rerouting

Local reference prices. Not affected by pass-through or lag settings. Not included in basket calculations.

🇵🇰

Pakistan

Bread & Cereals

Validation note: The model has known structural underestimates for Pakistan. Realized CPI changes have historically exceeded the model ceiling in this market.

Ceiling+25.6%

Typical range+14.1% – 19.2%

14.1%

19.2%

+25.6%

Impact Ceiling

+16.6%

Realized Est.

9pp

Model Gap

0.88x

Lag Multiplier

▶Factor Contribution Breakdown

Commodity

+10.7%42%

+5.6%22%

Energy

+5.4%21%

Fertilizer

+2.6%10%

Other

+1.3%5%

=25.6%100%

▶Purchasing Power Erosion

Purchasing Power Erosion

+1%Pakistani Rupee (PKR)

The Pakistani Rupee appreciated 1% against USD during Feb 2026 – Apr 2026, partially offsetting upstream commodity price shocks.

Pre: 282 PKR/USDPost: 279 PKR/USDFeb 2026 – Apr 2026

Basket Overview

+21.7%

weighted average price impact

+18.7pp

estimated CPI basket contribution

🍞 Bread

+25.6%

🥛 Milk

+23.6%

🍚 Rice

+12.4%

🫒 Cooking

+25.9%

🥬 Vegetables

+12%

⛽ Household

+36.6%

Note: Basket weights are approximate CPI sub-index shares for Pakistan. Impact figures assume 100% pass-through under the Strait of Hormuz Escalation scenario with 6 months lag (0.88x multiplier). Actual shelf prices will differ.

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Basket Overview

+21.7%

weighted average price impact

+18.7pp

estimated CPI basket contribution

🍞 Bread

+25.6%

🥛 Milk

+23.6%

🍚 Rice

+12.4%

🫒 Cooking

+25.9%

🥬 Vegetables

+12%

⛽ Household

+36.6%