Deep Dive

Country Impact Simulator

Explore how conflict shocks affect a single country across all consumer categories. Toggle items, adjust assumptions, and see the full breakdown.

Select a conflict

Select a country

Select a category

Pass-through

Lag period

🍞

Bread & Cereals

CPI weight: 18%

+8.3%

ceiling: 9.4%

🥛

Milk & Dairy

CPI weight: 14%

+6.2%

ceiling: 7.1%

🥚

Eggs

CPI weight: 4%

+5.5%

ceiling: 6.2%

🍚

Rice

CPI weight: 15%

+4.8%

ceiling: 5.4%

🫒

Cooking Oil

CPI weight: 12%

+10.9%

ceiling: 12.4%

🥬

Vegetables

CPI weight: 18%

+5.8%

ceiling: 6.6%

🍗

Meat & Chicken

CPI weight: 6%

+6.2%

ceiling: 7.1%

🧴

Detergent

CPI weight: 3%

+5.2%

ceiling: 5.9%

⛽

Household Fuel

CPI weight: 10%

+28.5%

ceiling: 32.4%

Consumer goods referencein India

Local prices showing how everyday costs shifted during this conflict.

iPhone 16 Pro 256GB

₹1.2L → ₹1.2L

+3.3%

Apple India MSRP + tariff adjustment

BMW X1 sDrive18i

₹49.5L → ₹50.5L

+2%

BMW India +2% from Apr 2026 (press.bmwgroup.com)

Monthly electricity (200 kWh)

₹1,600 → ₹1,840

+15%

Avg residential tariff + fuel surcharge

Economy DEL→DXB

₹18,000 → ₹25,200

+40%

Air India +$50–85 surcharge (CNBC)

Local reference prices. Not affected by pass-through or lag settings. Not included in basket calculations.

🇮🇳

India

Bread & Cereals

Ceiling+8.3%

Typical range+4.6% – 6.2%

4.6%

6.2%

+8.3%

Impact Ceiling

+5.4%

Realized Est.

2.9pp

Model Gap

0.88x

Lag Multiplier

▶Factor Contribution Breakdown

Commodity

+3.6%42%

+1.8%22%

Energy

+1.7%21%

Fertilizer

+0.8%10%

Other

+0.4%5%

=8.3%100%

▶Purchasing Power Erosion

Purchasing Power Erosion

-4%Indian Rupee (INR)

The Indian Rupee depreciated 4% against USD during Feb 2026 – Apr 2026, making imports more expensive and amplifying upstream commodity price shocks.

Pre: 89.9 INR/USDPost: 93.5 INR/USDFeb 2026 – Apr 2026

Basket Overview

+9.5%

weighted average price impact

+8.3pp

estimated CPI basket contribution

🍞 Bread

+8.3%

🥛 Milk

+6.2%

🍚 Rice

+4.8%

🫒 Cooking

+10.9%

🥬 Vegetables

+5.8%

⛽ Household

+28.5%

Note: Basket weights are approximate CPI sub-index shares for India. Impact figures assume 100% pass-through under the Strait of Hormuz Escalation scenario with 6 months lag (0.88x multiplier). Actual shelf prices will differ.

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Basket Overview

+9.5%

weighted average price impact

+8.3pp

estimated CPI basket contribution

🍞 Bread

+8.3%

🥛 Milk

+6.2%

🍚 Rice

+4.8%

🫒 Cooking

+10.9%

🥬 Vegetables

+5.8%

⛽ Household

+28.5%