Deep Dive

Country Impact Simulator

Explore how conflict shocks affect a single country across all consumer categories. Toggle items, adjust assumptions, and see the full breakdown.

Select a conflict

Select a country

Select a category

Pass-through

Lag period

🍞

Bread & Cereals

CPI weight: 28%

+34%

ceiling: 38.6%

🥛

Milk & Dairy

CPI weight: 12%

+21.2%

ceiling: 24.1%

🥚

Eggs

CPI weight: 6%

+19.7%

ceiling: 22.4%

🍚

Rice

CPI weight: 8%

+14.3%

ceiling: 16.2%

🫒

Cooking Oil

CPI weight: 18%

+37.7%

ceiling: 42.8%

🥬

Vegetables

CPI weight: 12%

+13.9%

ceiling: 15.8%

🍗

Meat & Chicken

CPI weight: 8%

+24.1%

ceiling: 27.4%

🧴

Detergent

CPI weight: 2%

+15.1%

ceiling: 17.2%

⛽

Household Fuel

CPI weight: 6%

+42.4%

ceiling: 48.2%

Consumer goods referencein Egypt

Local prices showing how everyday costs shifted during this conflict.

iPhone 16 Pro 256GB

EGP 62,000 → EGP 67,000

+8.1%

Orange Egypt + EGP depreciation

Monthly electricity (200 kWh)

EGP 420 → EGP 530

+26.2%

IMF reform tariff + fuel cost pass-through

Economy CAI→DXB

EGP 8,500 → EGP 14,200

+67.1%

Rerouting + fuel surcharge + EGP depreciation

Local reference prices. Not affected by pass-through or lag settings. Not included in basket calculations.

🇪🇬

Egypt

Bread & Cereals

Ceiling+34%

Typical range+18.7% – 25.5%

18.7%

25.5%

+34%

Impact Ceiling

+22.1%

Realized Est.

11.9pp

Model Gap

0.88x

Lag Multiplier

▶Factor Contribution Breakdown

Commodity

+14.3%42%

+7.5%22%

Energy

+7.1%21%

Fertilizer

+3.4%10%

Other

+1.7%5%

=34%100%

▶Purchasing Power Erosion

Purchasing Power Erosion

-10%Egyptian Pound (EGP)

The Egyptian Pound depreciated 10% against USD during Feb 2026 – Apr 2026, making imports more expensive and amplifying upstream commodity price shocks.

Pre: 48.5 EGP/USDPost: 53.5 EGP/USDFeb 2026 – Apr 2026

Basket Overview

+28.8%

weighted average price impact

+24.2pp

estimated CPI basket contribution

🍞 Bread

+34%

🥛 Milk

+21.2%

🍚 Rice

+14.3%

🫒 Cooking

+37.7%

🥬 Vegetables

+13.9%

⛽ Household

+42.4%

Note: Basket weights are approximate CPI sub-index shares for Egypt. Impact figures assume 100% pass-through under the Strait of Hormuz Escalation scenario with 6 months lag (0.88x multiplier). Actual shelf prices will differ.

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Basket Overview

+28.8%

weighted average price impact

+24.2pp

estimated CPI basket contribution

🍞 Bread

+34%

🥛 Milk

+21.2%

🍚 Rice

+14.3%

🫒 Cooking

+37.7%

🥬 Vegetables

+13.9%

⛽ Household

+42.4%