Deep Dive

Country Impact Simulator

Explore how conflict shocks affect a single country across all consumer categories. Toggle items, adjust assumptions, and see the full breakdown.

Select a conflict

Select a country

Select a category

Pass-through

Lag period

🍞

Bread & Cereals

CPI weight: 18%

+4.9%

ceiling: 5.6%

🥛

Milk & Dairy

CPI weight: 14%

+3.8%

ceiling: 4.3%

🥚

Eggs

CPI weight: 4%

+4.6%

ceiling: 5.2%

🍚

Rice

CPI weight: 15%

+1.8%

ceiling: 2.1%

🫒

Cooking Oil

CPI weight: 12%

+6.9%

ceiling: 7.8%

🥬

Vegetables

CPI weight: 18%

+3.6%

ceiling: 4.1%

🍗

Meat & Chicken

CPI weight: 6%

+4%

ceiling: 4.6%

🧴

Detergent

CPI weight: 3%

+3.3%

ceiling: 3.8%

⛽

Household Fuel

CPI weight: 10%

+16.9%

ceiling: 19.2%

Consumer goods referencein India

Local prices showing how everyday costs shifted during this conflict.

iPhone 16 Pro 256GB

₹1.2L → ₹1.2L

Apple India MSRP stable during Apr 2024 period

Monthly electricity (200 kWh)

₹1,440 → ₹1,600

+11.1%

DisCom tariff revision + subsidy delays

Local reference prices. Not affected by pass-through or lag settings. Not included in basket calculations.

🇮🇳

India

Cooking Oil

Ceiling+6.9%

Typical range+3.8% – 5.2%

3.8%

5.2%

+6.9%

Impact Ceiling

+4.5%

Realized Est.

2.4pp

Model Gap

0.88x

Lag Multiplier

▶Factor Contribution Breakdown

Commodity

+3%42%

+1.5%22%

Energy

+1.4%21%

Fertilizer

+0.7%10%

Other

+0.3%5%

=6.9%100%

▶Purchasing Power Erosion

Purchasing Power Erosion

-11%Indian Rupee (INR)

The Indian Rupee depreciated 11% against USD during Apr 2024 – Apr 2026, making imports more expensive and amplifying upstream commodity price shocks.

Pre: 83.4 INR/USDPost: 93.5 INR/USDApr 2024 – Apr 2026

Basket Overview

+5.6%

weighted average price impact

+4.9pp

estimated CPI basket contribution

🍞 Bread

+4.9%

🥛 Milk

+3.8%

🍚 Rice

+1.8%

🫒 Cooking

+6.9%

🥬 Vegetables

+3.6%

⛽ Household

+16.9%

Note: Basket weights are approximate CPI sub-index shares for India. Impact figures assume 100% pass-through under the Iran–Israel–US Conflict scenario with 6 months lag (0.88x multiplier). Actual shelf prices will differ.

Loading simulator...

Basket Overview

+5.6%

weighted average price impact

+4.9pp

estimated CPI basket contribution

🍞 Bread

+4.9%

🥛 Milk

+3.8%

🍚 Rice

+1.8%

🫒 Cooking

+6.9%

🥬 Vegetables

+3.6%

⛽ Household

+16.9%