Deep Dive

Country Impact Simulator

Explore how conflict shocks affect a single country across all consumer categories. Toggle items, adjust assumptions, and see the full breakdown.

Select a conflict

Select a country

Select a category

Pass-through

Lag period

🍞

Bread & Cereals

CPI weight: 25%

+6.9%

ceiling: 7.8%

🥛

Milk & Dairy

CPI weight: 15%

+6%

ceiling: 6.8%

🥚

Eggs

CPI weight: 5%

+3.7%

ceiling: 4.2%

🍚

Rice

CPI weight: 10%

+4%

ceiling: 4.6%

🫒

Cooking Oil

CPI weight: 15%

+9%

ceiling: 10.2%

🥬

Vegetables

CPI weight: 15%

+3.2%

ceiling: 3.6%

🍗

Meat & Chicken

CPI weight: 8%

+6.2%

ceiling: 7.1%

🧴

Detergent

CPI weight: 2%

+3.3%

ceiling: 3.8%

⛽

Household Fuel

CPI weight: 5%

+11.3%

ceiling: 12.8%

🇵🇭

Philippines

Household Fuel

Ceiling+11.3%

Typical range+6.2% – 8.5%

6.2%

8.5%

+11.3%

Impact Ceiling

+7.3%

Realized Est.

4pp

Model Gap

0.88x

Lag Multiplier

▶Factor Contribution Breakdown

Commodity

+4.7%42%

+2.5%22%

Energy

+2.4%21%

Fertilizer

+1.1%10%

Other

+0.6%5%

=11.3%100%

▶Purchasing Power Erosion

Purchasing Power Erosion

-5%Philippine Peso (PHP)

The Philippine Peso depreciated 5% against USD during Mar 2003 – Dec 2004, making imports more expensive and amplifying upstream commodity price shocks.

Pre: 53.6 PHP/USDPost: 56.3 PHP/USDMar 2003 – Dec 2004

Basket Overview

+6.4%

weighted average price impact

+5.4pp

estimated CPI basket contribution

🍞 Bread

+6.9%

🥛 Milk

+6%

🍚 Rice

+4%

🫒 Cooking

+9%

🥬 Vegetables

+3.2%

⛽ Household

+11.3%

Note: Basket weights are approximate CPI sub-index shares for Philippines. Impact figures assume 100% pass-through under the Iraq War / Gulf Oil Shock scenario with 6 months lag (0.88x multiplier). Actual shelf prices will differ.

Loading simulator...

Basket Overview

+6.4%

weighted average price impact

+5.4pp

estimated CPI basket contribution

🍞 Bread

+6.9%

🥛 Milk

+6%

🍚 Rice

+4%

🫒 Cooking

+9%

🥬 Vegetables

+3.2%

⛽ Household

+11.3%